The Convergence Rate from Discrete to Continuous Optimal Investment Stopping Problem

The author studies the optimal investment stopping problem in both continuous and discrete cases, where the investor needs to choose the optimal trading strategy and optimal stopping time concurrently to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth.Based on the work of Hu et al. (2018) with an additional stochastic payoff function,the author characterizes the value function for the continuous problem via the theory of quadratic reflected backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs for short) with unbounded terminal condition. In regard to the discrete problem, she gets the discretization form composed of piecewise quadratic BSDEs recursively under Markovian framework and the assumption of bounded obstacle, and provides some useful a priori estimates about the solutions with the help of an auxiliary forward-backward SDE system and Malliavin calculus. Finally, she obtains the uniform convergence and relevant rate from discretely to continuously quadratic reflected BSDE, which arise from corresponding optimal investment stopping problem through above characterization.     

浙江省七子花资源现状及保护建议

七子花是我国特有的单种属珍稀濒危植物，为国家二级重点保护野生植物，主要分布于浙江、安徽和湖北，而浙江是其分布中心．作者在野外调查的基础上，分析了浙江省七子花的地理分布特点、种群数量和群落类型．结果显示：浙江有七子花分布的群落总面积为54．28公顷，保存有七子花约近3万株(丛)，并集中分布在临安等5个县市．七子花分布的群落类型较多，但未见于常绿阔叶林中，反映了七子花是在人类长期干扰下勉强生存．但是，七子花对非生物环境的适应幅度较宽，其种群的生存和发展还是有希望的．最后，根据七子花的资源现状，提出了加强保护和持续利用的建议．     

Possibilistic linear-programming approach for supply chain networking decisions

Supply chain networking decisions are very important for the medium- and long-term planning success of manufacturing companies. The inputs to supply chain planning models are subject to environmental and system uncertainties. In this paper, a fuzzy set theory-based model is proposed to deal with those uncertainties. For this purpose, a possibilistic linear programming (PLP) model is used to make strategic resource-planning decisions using fuzzy demand forecasts and fuzzy yield rates as well as other inputs such as costs and capacities. The objective of the proposed PLP is to maximize the total profit of the enterprise. The model is applied to Mercedes–Benz Türk, one of the largest bus-manufacturing companies in the world, and conclusions and suggestions for further research are provided.     

分享经济环境下制造业产能分享的三群体演化博弈分析

制造业产能分享的兴起,改变了传统的制造模式,打破了原有制造业系统的平衡。为研究制造业产能分享参与群体的决策行为,在产能分享平台具有网络外部性、制造企业具有接入成本且博弈群体均具有有限理性的假设条件下,构建了“产能分享平台-制造业产能所有企业-制造业产能需求企业”三个博弈群体的演化博弈模型。运用演化博弈理论分析了模型的演化稳定策略,探讨了制造企业接入成本、产能分享平台的网络外部性系数等对此动态系统稳定性的影响,给出了演化稳定策略的经济和管理意义。最后,用数值仿真对比分析不同参数变化对演化结果的影响,为产能分享平台和制造企业的行为决策提供理论参考依据。     

突发公共卫生事件中地方政府与社会公众间的演化博弈研究

近年来,突发公共卫生事件频发,社会公众与地方政府相互配合是及时、高效解决突发公共卫生事件的必然选择。本文以全球抗击新冠肺炎疫情为背景,讨论在突发公共卫生事件中社会公众与地方政府之间的博弈关系,基于有限理性假设,构建演化博弈模型,分析博弈双方决策行为的动态调整过程,得到在不同条件下社会公众和地方政府的演化稳定策略。同时,利用MATLAB进行仿真实验,分析在博弈过程中政府的奖惩、上级部门的处罚等主要因素对博弈双方策略选择的影响。研究结果表明,完善相关的补贴政策,普及疫情防控的相关法律法规,加大对社会公众随意流动、违反疫情相关规章制度的惩罚力度,提高对地方政府宽松防疫的处罚等措施可以有效促进社会公众和地方政府之间的相互协作,最终实现共同积极防疫。     

A NEW APPROACH TO SIMULATING FISHERIES DATA FOR POLICY MAKING

The main objective of natural resource management is to create social and economic value while maintaining sustainability. In this paper, we introduce an enhanced method for simulating high‐dimensional time series and apply it to Icelandic fishing resource management data. The methodology can be used in many contexts, but is particularly appropriate for simulating the many complex interactions involved in natural resource management. The simulations can be used to explore the sensitivity of resource management policies to future changes using an affinity parameter. Affinity, qualitatively similar to correlation, is a ordinal measure between –1 and +1 that models one's belief how much the future might behave like, or different from, the past. The main appeal of the method is its reliance on data and relative independence from assumptions about that data. In the paper, we apply it on data on Icelandic cod with encouraging results.     

航空公司部分多属的枢纽机场定价研究

平台经济理论的运用是机场管理研究的新视角.以机场为平台商,航空公司和乘客为平台用户,在平台经济的分析框架下,以Armstrong价格模型为基础,并吸收Hotelling模型关于平台竞争及客户异质性的构建思想,针对竞争性的枢纽机场的定价策略进行研究.结果表明:机场的定价策略与航空公司和乘客的网络外部性参数和需求的价格弹性、乘客的预期交易次数、机场服务成本有关;倾斜的定价策略和航空收入与非航空收入的交叉补贴并不适用于模型假设下的机场.     

A dual model strategy to transfer multivariate calibration models for near-infrared spectral analysis

A dual-model method is proposed for correcting the calibration model. In the method, a primary calibration model is built using the spectra of a primary instrument and a correction model is established to describe the ratios between the predicted results from the spectra of different instruments. The prediction for the spectra of secondary instrument can be achieved by correcting the prediction of the primary model. A mathematical proof is described for the existence of the correction model, and the model is investigated using a near-infrared spectroscopic dataset of plant leaf samples measured on two instruments. The results show that a precise correction model is obtained and the model can be used to correct the predictions of the primary model. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and the reference ratios are above 0.9, and the prediction error after the correction is at the same level of the primary model.     

Mitigation strategies on scale-free networks against cascading failures

According to the dynamic characteristics of the cascading propagation, we introduce a mitigation mechanism and propose four mitigation methods on four types of nodes. By the normalized average avalanche size and a new measure, we demonstrate the efficiencies of the mitigation strategies on enhancing the robustness of scale-free networks against cascading failures and give the order of the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies. Surprisingly, we find that only adopting once mitigation mechanism on a small part of the overload nodes can dramatically improve the robustness of scale-free networks. In addition, we also show by numerical simulations that the optimal mitigation method strongly depends on the total capacities of all nodes in a network and the distribution of the load in the cascading model. Therefore, according to the protection strength for scale-free networks, by the distribution of the load and the protection price of networks, we can reasonably select how many nodes and which mitigation method to efficiently protect scale-free networks at the lower price. These findings may be very useful for avoiding various cascading-failure-induced disasters in the real world and for leading to insights into the mitigation of cascading failures.     

Equilibrium of a two-route system with delayed information feedback strategies

In intelligent transport system, some advanced information feedback strategies have been developed to reduce the oscillations and enhance the capacity on the road level. However, seldom strategies have considered the information delay and user equilibrium (UE) objective. Here, a derivative cost feedback strategy (DCFS) is proposed to reduce the influence of the delay, based on the UE principle. The simulation results show that in both no-delay and delay information cases, DCFS are the best and can make the system reaching the UE. Because DCFS can predict the trend of the travel cost.